:Product: 0329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 29/0408Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 28/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/2241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 251 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Mar), quiet levels on
day two (31 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 088
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  009/008-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/10/45