:Product: 0401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 441 km/s at 31/2157Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
01/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/1645Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 585 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (02 Apr), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (03 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (04 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 082
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 082/084/084
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  022/035-015/018-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/20
Minor Storm           25/25/05
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/55/25