:Product: 0402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 02/2011Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 02/1406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 02/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 625 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 082
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 082/082/078
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  015/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  015/018-008/008-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/35
Minor Storm           25/05/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/25/55