:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 04/0322Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2862 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Apr, 07 Apr)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 083
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 083/083/083
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  011/014-010/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    45/35/40