:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1652Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Apr,
08 Apr, 09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 06/1146Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 06/0632Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/0634Z. Electrons greater that 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2100 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 087
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 090/092/095
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  010/014-010/012-009/009

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/45/25