:Product: 0409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/1613Z from Region 2529 (N10E54). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr,
11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 09/1553Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/0506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/1612Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 106
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10