:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/2255Z from Region 2529 (N10E54). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr,
12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 10/2050Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 10/1306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/0615Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Apr, 12 Apr)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 111
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 112/112/112
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  008/008-008/008-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/35
Minor Storm           05/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/20/50