:Product: 0412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0751Z from Region 2529 (N09E14). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Apr,
14 Apr, 15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 12/2040Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 12/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
12/2000Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Apr, 14
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 111
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  018/030-018/030-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    70/70/45