:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Apr,
15 Apr, 16 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 13/0614Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 13/0014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 13/0007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4307 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 108
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  024/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  018/030-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           30/10/05
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    75/45/25