:Product: 0415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/1430Z from Region 2529 (N10W24). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 14/2215Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 15/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2538 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr,
17 Apr, 18 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 112
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 111/111/108
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  007/008-007/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/25