:Product: 0416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 16/0625Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 15/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
16/1806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2086 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr)
and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 113
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 112/110/110
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  007/010-006/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/45