:Product: 0417RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 16/2349Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 17/1937Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/0412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1036 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Apr, 19 Apr) and
quiet levels on day three (20 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Apr 102
Predicted   18 Apr-20 Apr 102/102/095
90 Day Mean        17 Apr 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  012/012-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/45/25