:Product: 0420RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/2302Z from Region 2529 (N10W81). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 20/1928Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
20/1045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0639Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 310 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Apr, 22 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on day three (23 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Apr 083
Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        20 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/45