:Product: 0421RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Apr, 23 Apr, 24 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 469 km/s at 21/0853Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
21/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/0645Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Apr), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (23 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Apr 077
Predicted   22 Apr-24 Apr 075/080/080
90 Day Mean        21 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  006/005-012/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/35
Minor Storm           05/30/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/65/45