:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 22/1922Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 22/1251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
22/1440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 544 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 077
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 080/078/078
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  023/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  012/016-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           30/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/45/25