:Product: 0423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 22/2115Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
23/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Apr,
25 Apr, 26 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Apr 079
Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr 079/078/078
90 Day Mean        23 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  007/010-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/25