:Product: 0424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 24/0945Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 23/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 23/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (27 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Apr 082
Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        24 Apr 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20