:Product: 0425RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 594 km/s at 25/0053Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
24/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/2318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 082
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 082/082/081
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  006/006-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/20