:Product: 0426RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Apr,
28 Apr, 29 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 562 km/s at 25/2130Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/2011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0802Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 172 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on day three (29 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Apr 085
Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr 088/087/086
90 Day Mean        26 Apr 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  006/005-005/005-010/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/40