:Product: 0428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1251Z from Region 2535 (N07E16). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Apr,
30 Apr, 01 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 498 km/s at 28/0303Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
28/0814Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
28/1247Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 347 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Apr), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (30 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (01 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 095
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May 095/095/092
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 096

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  012/014-018/026-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/55/60