:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1047Z from Region 2539 (N17E38). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 May,
02 May, 03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 435 km/s at 30/2057Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
30/1725Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 292 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 May) and quiet levels on day three (03 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 094
Predicted   01 May-03 May 092/090/095
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 096

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  013/015-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/10