:Product: 0501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/0922Z from Region 2539 (N16E22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 May,
03 May, 04 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 01/1656Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 01/1701Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
01/1352Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (03 May, 04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 092
Predicted   02 May-04 May 090/095/105
90 Day Mean        01 May 096

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  010/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/10/10