:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/0842Z from Region 2540 (N22E24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (03 May) and likely to be
low on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 02/1830Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 02/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 02/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 874 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 090
Predicted   03 May-05 May 095/105/110
90 Day Mean        02 May 096

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  021/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  010/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10