:Product: 0503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (04 May) and likely to be
low on days two and three (05 May, 06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 03/0618Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 02/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 02/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4006 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06
May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 090
Predicted   04 May-06 May 095/105/110
90 Day Mean        03 May 096

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  026/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10