:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/2248Z from Region 2542 (N09E70). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May,
07 May, 08 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 04/2128Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/0827Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4145 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (07 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08 May).

III.  Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 087
Predicted   06 May-08 May 090/085/085
90 Day Mean        05 May 095

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  006/003-010/004-014/004

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/35/40