:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May,
08 May, 09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 06/2031Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 06/1705Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 06/1654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4014 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (09 May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 090
Predicted   07 May-09 May 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        06 May 095

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  013/015-013/018-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/40/65