:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May,
10 May, 11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 08/1943Z. Total
IMF reached 18 nT at 08/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -12 nT at 08/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 326 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 May, 10
May) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 May).

III.  Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 084
Predicted   09 May-11 May 085/085/090
90 Day Mean        08 May 094

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  039/065
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  022/032-018/025-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           30/30/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    65/65/45