:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May,
11 May, 12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 767 km/s at 09/0932Z. Total
IMF reached 10 nT at 09/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -8 nT at 08/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16412 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (11 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 089
Predicted   10 May-12 May 090/090/092
90 Day Mean        09 May 094

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  032/060
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  021/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  015/022-013/014-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/45/30