:Product: 0510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May,
12 May, 13 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 723 km/s at 10/0100Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 10/1303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/2150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 54929 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 May) and quiet levels on day three (13 May).

III.  Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 089
Predicted   11 May-13 May 090/092/098
90 Day Mean        10 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  021/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  012/014-009/010-006/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/20