:Product: 0511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May,
13 May, 14 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 615 km/s at 10/2240Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 48559 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14
May).

III.  Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 094
Predicted   12 May-14 May 097/100/100
90 Day Mean        11 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  005/008-005/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/10/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/10