:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May,
15 May, 16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 12/2316Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 13/1041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/0744Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 35258 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (15 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (16 May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 093
Predicted   14 May-16 May 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        13 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  004/005-007/008-017/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/40
Minor Storm           01/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/60