:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May,
21 May, 22 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 18/2246Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 19/2019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/0807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1263 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 099
Predicted   20 May-22 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        19 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  018/022-012/016-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/50/40