:Product: 0520RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 May,
22 May, 23 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 20/0819Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/0255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/2351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 597 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (21 May, 23 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 May 100
Predicted   21 May-23 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        20 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  013/012-009/008-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/40