:Product: 0522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May,
24 May, 25 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 706 km/s at 22/0402Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 429 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (24 May, 25 May).

III.  Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 May 097
Predicted   23 May-25 May 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        22 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  009/010-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/10