:Product: 0524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1020Z from Region 2546 (S07W63). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 May,
26 May, 27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 24/0416Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 24/0749Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/0907Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 509 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 094
Predicted   25 May-27 May 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        24 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  008/008-009/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/25
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/30