:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May,
27 May, 28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 529 km/s at 25/0013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
25/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
25/1257Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 552 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 094
Predicted   26 May-28 May 095/090/085
90 Day Mean        25 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  009/012-011/014-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/40/25