:Product: 0529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 29/2041Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (31 May) and quiet levels on day three (01
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 083
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 080/075/075
90 Day Mean        29 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  015/020-010/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/10
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    55/35/20