:Product: 0531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun,
02 Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 30/2102Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/1300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/1946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1905 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Jun, 03
Jun) and quiet levels on day two (02 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 May 087
Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun 085/085/080
90 Day Mean        31 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  006/006-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/15/35