:Product: 0601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Jun, 03 Jun)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (04 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 31/2352Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
31/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1373 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (03 Jun) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (04
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 086
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun 085/080/075
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 092

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  006/005-008/010-024/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/35
Minor Storm           05/10/35
Major-severe storm    01/01/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/05
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/35/75