:Product: 0603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 358 km/s at 03/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1288 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on days one and two (04 Jun, 05
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 083
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 082/080/080
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 092

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  024/035-021/032-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           35/30/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    70/70/40