:Product: 0604RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 347 km/s at 04/1107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1520 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (05 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 080
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 078/078/082
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 092

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  005/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  025/042-013/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           35/15/05
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    70/40/25