:Product: 0612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/2228Z from Region 2552 (N15W75). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun,
14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 11/2124Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 12/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
12/1234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 448 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (13 Jun, 15
Jun) and quiet levels on day two (14 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 094
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 092/092/092
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 091

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  007/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    25/15/25