:Product: 0618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 664 km/s at 18/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 17/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/0748Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 812 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 084
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 091

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10