:Product: 0619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/1158Z from Region 2558 (N13W37). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 703 km/s at 19/2005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1032 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 085
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 085/085/080
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 091

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/10