:Product: 0620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jun,
22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
averaged near 500 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0553Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/1946Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (23 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 084
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 085/085/080
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 091

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  005/005-005/005-011/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/10/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20