:Product: 0622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 22/2037Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 22/1926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 22/1548Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1181 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Jun, 24 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 078
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 075/070/070
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 091

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  011/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  011/012-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/35/20