:Product: 0625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 24/2152Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/1602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1926 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 077
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 090

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05