:Product: 0626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 26 2245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 26/1531Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 26/1642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
26/1442Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3009 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 077
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 077/080/080
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 090

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  007/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05