:Product: 0628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 27/2228Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 28/1859Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/0308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Jun), quiet to active levels on day
two (30 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 073
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul 070/070/075
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 090

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  016/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  006/005-012/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/15
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/35/25
Major-severe storm    05/40/20