:Product: 0629RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 28/2305Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
28/2140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
29/1347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2248 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (01 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (02 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jun 074
Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul 075/080/080
90 Day Mean        29 Jun 090

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  012/015-009/010-018/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/40
Minor Storm           10/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           35/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/20/55